As a professor of Latin American studies and someone who has closely followed Ecuador’s trajectory over the past two decades, I have to say—watching this once-stable nation descend into chaos is nothing short of tragic. Ecuador was once among the safest countries in South America, especially during Rafael Correa’s presidency. Now, it has become a battleground for foreign drug cartels, spiraling into violence at a rate never seen before.
The Turning Point: Losing the American Military Base in Manta
To understand why Ecuador has become ungovernable, we need to go back to a fateful decision in 2009—when Correa refused to renew the lease on the U.S. military base in Manta. At the time, Correa’s justification was about sovereignty, but in hindsight, it was a fatal mistake. That base played a critical role in deterring drug trafficking. Without it, Ecuador became a free-for-all for cartels from Mexico, Colombia, and even the Balkans. Now, as reported by The Brookings Institution, organized crime has infiltrated every level of Ecuadorian society.
The Noboa Dilemma: Reelection and the Nation on the Brink
Beyond security, Noboa has also been making strategic economic moves. His administration recently finalized a trade deal with Canada, focusing on exports such as flowers, canned tuna, textiles, and auto parts—an agreement that aims to boost Ecuadorian industries and create jobs. This deal contrasts with his more confrontational trade approach toward Mexico, where he announced tariffs on Mexican imports in an effort to protect local manufacturers. While critics argue that the move risks diplomatic tensions, Noboa’s strategy aligns with his broader push to align Ecuador with stronger economic allies like the U.S. and Canada rather than its Latin American neighbors.
Furthermore, Ecuador has expanded its fruit exports, with the first shipments of Hass avocados and red dragon fruit recently sent to Argentina. These moves indicate that Noboa is attempting to stimulate the economy amid the chaos, leveraging trade partnerships to offset the negative impact of rising crime and instability.
Fast forward to today, and Daniel Noboa faces an impossible situation. With the runoff election approaching in April, his campaign has largely revolved around his efforts to restore security and economic stability. He is positioning himself as the only leader willing to take the necessary hardline approach, contrasting with González’s softer stance on crime and more interventionist economic policies. He inherited this crisis from his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, who presided over a nation slipping deeper into lawlessness. Noboa, however, has taken a different approach—one that I believe is smart, if imperfect. He’s aligning himself with Donald Trump, a leader who understands that security and strong borders matter. This is a necessary move, especially when Biden’s weak policies have allowed criminal networks to flourish across Latin America.
According to The Associated Press, Noboa is looking to bring foreign military assistance back into Ecuador to combat the cartels. This is an admission of what should have been obvious for years—Ecuador cannot fight this war alone.
The Rise of Crime and the Cost of Sovereignty
Let’s be honest: Correa’s presidency had its flaws. His government was heavy-handed, his economic policies unsustainable, and his attacks on the press unacceptable. But during his presidency, Ecuador remained relatively safe. When he was in office, people didn’t have to fear kidnappings or daily shootouts in Guayaquil.
Now, as reported by CBS News, Ecuador’s murder rate has exploded to one of the highest in the region. Cartels are assassinating military leaders, bribing judges, and extorting businesses. Just recently, Colonel Porfirio Cedeño, a high-ranking Ecuadorian air force officer, was gunned down in Guayaquil while traveling to a military ceremony, further underscoring the growing power of these criminal networks and the dangerous reality Ecuador’s security forces now face. His brutal execution underscores the growing power of these criminal networks and the dangerous reality Ecuador’s security forces now face. This is no longer just about Ecuador—it’s about the entire hemisphere. As long as Ecuador remains weak, drug shipments will continue flowing through to the U.S. and Europe.
Ecuador’s Future: Noboa’s Reelection and the Two Paths
Ecuador stands at a crossroads in the upcoming April runoff between Noboa and leftist candidate Luisa González. Noboa is campaigning on a message of law, order, and economic resurgence, arguing that he needs more time to implement his security and trade policies. His reelection strategy leans on showing progress in reducing crime, strengthening ties with key economic partners, and differentiating himself from the failed policies of past governments. Noboa represents an attempt—however desperate—to take back control. González, on the other hand, represents a return to the Correa era but without Correa’s strength. She’s a puppet for Correa’s exiled movement, but she lacks the political skill to handle the country’s crisis.
For Ecuador to recover, it must embrace law and order. That means restoring military cooperation with the U.S., empowering security forces, and cleaning out the corrupt elements of government. Noboa has a chance to do this, but he needs to act boldly. If he fails, Ecuador may collapse beyond repair.
As someone who has studied this region for decades, I can say with certainty—without strong leadership, Ecuador’s future is bleak. It’s time for a real fight against the cartels, not empty political promises.
Disclaimer: This article represents the informed opinion of the author based on available reports, expert analysis, and historical context. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, some information may evolve as new developments arise. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of any institution or organization. Readers are encouraged to consult multiple sources for a comprehensive understanding of Ecuador’s political and security situation.
